Thursday, January 28, 2021

USD/CAD Key Assist- Loonie Bulls Beware

Canadian Greenback Technical Worth Outlook: USD/CAD Weekly Commerce Ranges

  • Canadian Greenback up to date technical commerce ranges – Weekly Chart
  • USD/CAD rebounds off confluence downtrend assist – threat for near-term restoration
  • Resistance / bearish invalidation at 1.3056 – Crucial assist regular at 1.2579-1.2619

The Canadian Greenback is down greater than 0.6% in opposition to the US Greenback into the weekly open with USD/CAD constructing on a restoration off downtrend assist final week. Is that this only a bear market rally or is a bigger reversal underway? These are the up to date targets and invalidation ranges that matter on the USD/CAD weekly technical worth chart heading into the beginning of the week. Evaluation my newest Technique Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie technical setup and extra.

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Canadian Greenback Worth Chart – USD/CAD Weekly

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Weekly - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Ready by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Notes: In my final Canadian Greenback Weekly Worth Outlook we famous the danger for continued USD/CAD weak spot into the yearly open whereas highlighting key, “confluence assist on the 2018 yearly open / 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of 2017 advance at 1.2579-1.2619 – look for a bigger response there IF reached.” Worth registered a low at 1.2629 final week earlier than rebounding- so is a extra near-term low in?

Preliminary weekly resistance eyed on the goal 2020 yearly open at 1.2975 backed the 61.8% retracement / channel resistance at 1.3057 – a breach / weekly shut above this confluence zone is required to counsel a extra vital low is in place. Key assist stays unchanged with a weekly shut beneath 1.2579 in the end wanted to mark resumption of the broader downtrend in direction of the 1.24-handle and 1.2358.

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Backside line: The USD/CAD breakdown could also be dropping steam right here as worth responds to confluence downtrend assist. From a buying and selling standpoint, the menace for a bigger restoration stays whereas above 1.2579 – be looking out for potential topside exhaustion forward of 1.3057 IF worth is certainly heading decrease. Evaluation my newest Canadian Greenback Worth Outlook for a better take a look at the near-term USD/CAD technical commerce ranges.

For a whole breakdown of Michael’s buying and selling technique, evaluation his Foundations of Technical Evaluation collection on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Greenback Dealer Sentiment – USD/CAD Worth Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

  • A abstract of IG Shopper Sentiment exhibits merchants are net-long USD/CAD – the ratio stands at +1.78 (64.05% of merchants are lengthy) – sometimes bearish studying
  • Lengthy positions are 7.33% decrease than yesterday and 10.17% decrease from final week
  • Brief positions are29.75% larger than yesterday and 11.73% larger from final week
  • We sometimes take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the actual fact merchants are net-long suggests USD/CAD costs could proceed to fall. But merchants are much less net-long than yesterday and in contrast with final week. Current adjustments in sentiment warn that the present USD/CAD worth development could quickly reverse larger regardless of the actual fact merchants stay net-long.

Knowledge supplied by

of shoppers are web lengthy.

of shoppers are web quick.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Every day -9% 20% -1%
Weekly -6% 17% 1%

Find out how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning impression development

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US / Canada Financial Calendar

US / Canada Economic Calendar - USD/CAD Data Releases - Loonie Weekly Event Risk

Financial Calendarnewest financial developments and upcoming occasion threat.

Earlier Weekly Technical Charts

  • Sterling (GBP/USD)
  • US Greenback (DXY)
  • Euro (EUR/USD)
  • Crude Oil (WTI)
  • Gold (XAU/USD)
  • Australian Greenback (AUD/USD)

— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Forex Strategist with DailyFX

Comply with Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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