Wednesday, January 27, 2021

EUR/USD upside momentum stalls as greenback comes again into favour

EUR/USD retains decrease to begin the week because the greenback holds firmer

EUR/USD D1 11-01

The greenback is seeking to publish three straight days of positive aspects in opposition to the euro for the primary time in over a month, as we see a continued retreat in EUR/USD after having hit highs final seen since April 2018 final week.

EUR/USD, the retreat now strikes in direction of a take a look at of the 23.6 retracement degree of the rally since November @ 1.2173. That’s the first key minor assist degree to observe earlier than shifting in direction of the 21 December low @ 1.2130.

Going to the near-term chart:

EUR/USD H1 11-01

Sellers have now seized near-term management within the pair upon a break under the important thing hourly shifting averages in direction of the latter levels of buying and selling final week.

Since then, they’ve leaned on each the 100-hour shifting common (purple line) and the 200-hour shifting common (blue line) to maintain the draw back stress going.

That’s ensuing within the take a look at of assist @ 1.2173 identified above earlier than a light bounce.

So, what’s subsequent for the pair?

The market goes to should do some soul-searching within the subsequent few classes to try to work out how a lot of the greenback power right here is warranted and sustainable.

The breakout in yields is encouraging and from a technical and positioning perspective, a pullback is not completely out of the query both.

Nonetheless, have issues modified when it comes to the basics? I am nonetheless not satisfied.

For EUR/USD, the pair is essentially throughout the realms of roaming between 1.2000 to 1.2500 to begin the brand new yr. So long as the decrease sure holds and the Fed put continues to be in play, the trail of least resistance for the pair stays for a transfer greater in my opinion.

However that does not rule out the potential for some short-term ache in the meanwhile.

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